Hard to say, Don. As it stands, the motivation to continue playing is 2 hard dailies and 1 challenging daily dungeon, and the dark zone. Dark Zone with a group of 4 people all on voice comms would keep me playing for a while, but I'd really like to see more pvp, because once I get full high-end gear, I want to "test" it out on other people without losing all my ranks.
Honestly it's going to depend on how compelling the end game is, and how well it keeps my interest. I had a great time last night with Derak, and I think it'd be a blast running dark zone with a full group.
So what I'm seeing on http://tomclancy-thedivision.ubi.com/game/en-us/season-pass/index.aspx is that the schedule of content release is pretty quick, but tapers down towards summer/end of year. Looks like some kind of horde-mode, enhanced PvP, and.. Survival. Like.. Cold-as-balls-find-enough-calories-to-keep-moving Survival. But, as with anything Ubisoft puts out: Final Product Subject to Change.
Oh. My sweet, summer child. I logged in this morning and noticed an "Incursion" zone on the map in the SE. Couldn't get through the gate and the door in the sewers is disabled, but it looks like the content is leaking in. Rewards and such showed up if you highlighted it on the map (Piece of a gear set and some $D).
I think my two biggest gripes with the game so far, now that I am rockin almost all high-ends and DZ 32, is: 1) Rogue penalties are too great. PvP needs to be a better balance of risk/reward. Penalties--especially the DZ xp penalty--should be reduced greatly. Also, rolled into my second point, the lootable items from players you kill need to be more desirable. 2) End Game item progression in this game is... pretty lackluster right now. You'll hit 30 in a mix of ilvl 25-30 blues and maybe a few purples. After 2-3 hours running hard modes at 30, you'll have a full set of blues and a few purples. After another 2-3 hrs in the DZ, you'll have optimized epics, leaving only high end gear truly desirable, everything else gets broken down for the crafting machine RNG. So, once you're in full purples then all you care about are the phoenix credits, because that's the best way to get good high end gear. So, you do your hard mode dailies and challenge mode daily. This nets you about 1 high end blueprint every day or two depending on how active you are outside of the daily missions. High end drops tend to be trash, because they have 1 shot at their rolls, where as a crafting blueprint you can craft over and over until you get rolls you like on the item you build. After a week or so, you're in mostly high end, crafted gear. The major issues here are that it's too fast to progress to full epics, so the DZ credits and even really your cash are totally devalued. High End gear is almost too randomized, like vanilla D3 was, to the point where high end drops are almost always useless and the crafted stuff you can build 4-5 times and pick and choose the well rolled piece from will be better. This leaves one good path to gear; get phoenix credits --> disenchant everything into crafting mats --> buy blue prints --> spam craft the blueprints till you get good rolls. It's not bad, nor is it unfun it actually is still pretty fun, but it's very narrow sighted and I'm suprised the end game item progression system made it past QA.